A technological revolution is coming to…everything, obviously, including warfare. We aren’t talking just about smart bombs and armed drones anymore. The future might bring us automated battles fought by robots with artificial intelligence, swarms of micro-drones that can replicate themselves, self-guided bullets, non-lethal weapons (that can be used on political protestors, BTW), particle beam rifles, gene-spliced bioweapons, and other armaments beyond our imagination.
This stuff is so important that in the next two month we will have three topics related to it. First up on Monday is the basics. We will learn about some of the wilder military technologies that are being developed to the extent we can know about such secret stuff; how their availability and employment could change how we get into/avoid wars, fight them, and finish them; and some of the broad ramifications for national defense, international relations, and our safety.
On May 28 we will consider the future of nuclear deterrence in particular, as suggested by James, focusing on whether nuclear war is going to remain as unthinkable as it is today. Finally, on June 18th we bring it all together and also tackle President Trump’ specialty: Brinksmanship and threatening war as a routine tool of negotiating.
Here are the usual discussion questions and optional readings. The reading focus on future gee-wiz weaponry under development and possible implications for war and peace. As you read, think about our basic topic question: Is war about to become too easy to wage? In my opening remarks I will list some of the technologies and some hopefully useful ways to think about some of these dilemmas.
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS –
- History: How has the world dealt with military technological revolutions in the past? E.g., nuclear weapons, chemical/biological, and earlier? Lessons learned?
- Future war: Which technologies are at issue and how could they make wars easier to start and harder to deter and end? Easier/harder for whom – USA/allies, adversary nations, terrorists and criminals)? What will “war” mean in 20-30 years?
- Implications: Tradeoffs (esp. reducing costs of war vs. lowering its threshold). Implications for deterrence and diplomacy? Ethics/morality.
- Uncertainty: What is the danger of us thinking future wars will be easier and being proven wrong, or vice versa?
- Options: What’s best – Develop capability, arms races, arms control, alliances, prepare the public to live with uncertainty?
SUGGESTED BACKGROUND READING –
- Key point: Technological advances never made war unthinkable in the past.
New technologies –
- 8 technologies that are already transforming international security. Recommended.
- 9 amazing military technologies of the future (slides). Recommended
- What is DARPA working on nowadays?
- We may soon deploy armed drones domestically – a civil liberties disaster.
War becoming too easy?
- An expert pleads with us to notice how easy war is becoming and how bad that is. Video 50m.
- The ethics of using robots in war: Short version recommended. Long version but strongly against it.
- Could we ever negotiate a cybersecurity treaty?
No, war will never be easy –
- There are no easy wars in our future, and we should never think it will return.
The top advisor Trump just replaced with John Bolton agrees! Either recommended.
- New tech will mean new vulnerabilities, too, especially dependence on computer networks and space-based assets. Recommended.
- Killer robots could end war and usher in permanent peace.
NEXT WEEK: Do atheists tend to be intolerant?
This topic is just a way to ask two big questions, I think. They are (1) What motivates America’s interaction with the rest of the world, and (2) how much “good” do we really accomplish and for whom (domestically and abroad)?
Conversations on topics like this often focus on the wars we have fought and their moral justification and successes or failures. CivCon’s discussions of war and peace issues tend to enter around the basic Left v. Right cleavage on the morality of those wars and who they are really fought for. To (some but not all) progressives, the U.S. government has been the bad guy in many times and places, mainly because “we the People” in our foreign policy is really “We, the Corporations” or “We, the neoconservative imperialists.” Many (but not all) conservatives seem to think our country’s moral virtue and exceptionalism are beyond questioning and that our national interests are broad, unchanging, and best advanced through violence and threats of violence. Both sides off and on return to an old American tradition: An almost messianic desire to spread our values, both democratic and capitalist.
Civilized Conversation has managed to broaden this stale debate in the past, IMO. Beyond wars and “other “hard power,” we also have dealt with “soft power” issues like trade policy, non-coercive diplomacy, and immigration.
Now, of course, we have to add two new wrinkles brought to us by the Trump Administration. One is a resurgent patriotism (or belligerent nationalism, depending on your POV) that Trump created and/or rode into the oval office. The other is his sharp retreat from global leadership under his campaign slogan “American First.” (We did meetings on both of these. See below.)
So, my idea was that we could go over different POVs on the (1) intentions and (2) results of the biggest chunks of our recent foreign policy, including but not limited to wars and military coercion. I don’t think people have to know much about foreign affairs for this to be a good meeting. To me our topic is really all about who you think the “We” is in “our” relations with the rest of the world.
NEWBIES: Please note that the readings are optional and some are tagged as being more useful than others. I may start reducing the number of readings since I think they scare away new members. What do the rest of you think?
OPTIONAL BACKGROUND READING –
Basic background and related CivCon mtgs –
- ABCs of how US foreign policy gets made. Short.
- 2017 CivCon – What does the USA stand for? Part 1 by DavidG + Part 2 by Ali. Some useful links.
- 2017 CivCon – Has Trump summoned a New American Nationalism?
- 2012 – What is patriotism?
Good guys, bad guys, or neither –
- USA is the good guy when we support a global rule of law.
- …and when we don’t let belief in our own superiority drive what we do. Recommended
- Trump has started a battle for the soul of U.S. foreign policy. Recommended.
- Neither: We should put protecting Americans over reassuring others. Conservative POV (but not neoconservative).
- Video of Obama speech on what USA stands for. (28m).
NEXT WEEK: Would gun control really reduce crime?
We have talked about the Constitution many, many times and in many detailed and abstract ways. We have never asked what should the average citizen know about the Constitution, both in terms of what’s in the document and why it matters.
What they do know is not much. The level of public ignorance of our founding document is astounding. Forget bills of attainder, living constitution versus original meaning, and substantive due process. More than one-third of Americans cannot name a single right guaranteed in the Bill of Rights, and one in six believe Muslims are not entitled to equal constitutional rights and equal protection!
So, or our purposes assume that the average American is a tabula rasa on this stuff. What are the most critical, basic things about the Constitution that they need to know? Do they need to be familiar with anything other than the bare basics of the Bill of Rights and the basic powers of government? What about the history of how and why the Constitution was written and/or a teeny little bit on how judges and SCOTUS interpret it? What do people probably need to unlearn that is wrong? You get the idea.
Below are some optional readings. They include a quiz for YOU to take on basic Constitutional knowledge; discussions of public ignorance and its importance; and links to some old CivCon meetings. You might want to peruse the two meetings that dealt with progressive versus conservative methods of constitutional interpretation if you are not familiar at all with the subject. The one on the liberal POV had the better links.
Also, at Monday’s meeting I will pick which two volunteers will help me pick our next round of topics (March – June). Send me your topic ideas!
SUGGESTED BACKGROUND READING –
Related CivCon meetings:
- Liberal and conservative constitutional interpretation. Click.
- Sept. 2015: Is public ignorance of basic civics a big problem?
- Nov 2016: What is “cultural literacy?”
Your knowledge of the Constitution –
- Take this quiz. 10 questions, then a harder 50. How did you do?
- Some things that are NOT in the Constitution (at least explicitly)
- FYI: Full text of The Constitution.
What they teach kids about the Constitution –
- In California: What kids learn, by grade.
- There is a “National Constitution Day” every September 17, by law. School kids must spend an hour on it with. DavidG has been a guest speaker in local high school classes.
- California is trying to promote/recognize constitutional and civic knowledge.
- The Simpsons version of Schoolhouse Rock explains it all.
What the public actually knows –
- Almost nothing. Wow.
- Support for the 1st amendment has been eroding and since Trump is crumbling. Vulnerable due to ignorance?
- Yet, civic ignorance is rational, points out this conservative. And, most voters are not stupid.
NEXT WEEK: US foreign policy – How do we know we are the good guys?
If you don’t know what the Prosperity Gospel is and how popular it has become you should. President Trump has been associated with this controversial set of religious beliefs for years. A prosperity Gospel preacher gave the invocation at his inauguration and another one advices Trump.
Moreover, Trump voters’ belief that he embodies the virtues promoted by the prosperity gospel probably explains a lot of his shockingly- high level of support (over 80%) among White U.S. Evangelicals. There are a lot of prosperity gospel-friendly Americans. According to one study (see link below) something like one in five churches in the United States preach a version of the prosperity gospel and about one in six American Christians can be described a lose adherents to its main tenets.
What tenets are those? What is the prosperity gospel and how did it originate in the United States? How Christian is it (that’s fiercely debated)? How American is it (very)? What does that tell us about the interrelationship between the Christian creed and the American creed? Why does the prosperity gospel ring true to so many low-income White Americans and African-Americans? Why are prosperity gospel churches mushrooming abroad, especially in poor but up and coming regions of the world like Africa?
I know most of us in Civilized Conversation are secular in outlook. But, what are the major critiques of prosperity gospel-like thinking from within Christianity? Many Christian leaders – from Rick Warren to Jerry Falwell! – have fiercely denounced the prosperity gospel as unchristian and even heretical. Much of the ire has focused on some of the movement’s leading figures, like Joel Osteen, who runs one of the largest churches in the country in Houston. Pope Francis has roundly condemned this doctrine.
This isn’t exactly my area of expertise. But, if the last year has taught us anything, it’s that the millions of regular Americans that don’t get much media attention or cultural respect matter, too. So, here are a few readings on the basics of the prosperity gospel philosophy and some critiques of it. Our religious topics are among our best meetings, I’ve always thought. I’m looking forward to it.
SUGGESTED BACKGROUND READING –
What is the Prosperity Gospel?
- Wiki’s Prosperity Theology entry; basic explanation. Recommended.
- Longer explanation + did prosperity gospel suckers help to create 2008 housing crisis? Useful if you have time.
Trump and the Prosperity Gospel –
- He is mainstreaming, to be blunt, heresy.
- He’s just continuing the GOP’s long love affair with the Prosperity Gospel. Recommended.
Some specific critiques –
- A progressive Christian hammers the prosperity gospel as unchristian.
- John Oliver goes for the throat (H/T Jeremy or was it Scott?) Fun.
- Pope Francis loathes it.
- A former supporter, now dying: It has some virtues but ignores the Christian requirement to acknowledge our own frailty and limits. More on this point. Either.
- Prosperity Gospel thinking helps explain Americans’ dislike of the poor. Recommended.
- Worse, it is the poor that get scammed by it, says Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. .
- In defense of the Prosperity Gospel.
NEXT WEEK: Is the American diet unhealthy?
(See next post down for “Monday’s Mtg” post.)
Gang – Sal contacted me about helping to spread the word about an event his daughter Cori is hosting to unveil her new album. Anything for Sal, so here is the info.
Hi David. My daughter Cori tried sending the following to you but it did not go through. Any assistance you can give in spreading the word for her would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you. Sal
Hi Dad, I can’t reply to this email directly that you forwarded but if you could forward this to your contact at the group if they’d like to enjoy the concert or help spread the word: I am hosting a night of music, art and dancing and would love if any local art lovers would like to join! On November 11th at the Museum of Contemporary Art San Diego, join us for this special night of live, original music with a private concert by 12 musicians, private gallery viewings and access to the museum’s current special exhibit “Memories of Underdevelopment”, and cocktails and dancing! Named one of San Diego’s Top Singer-Songwriters, I am releasing my locally produced album and celebrating by hosting this night and I would like to invite any other lovers of the arts and especially who believe in the importance of support local art to come enjoy a private concert and the beauty of the museum. The Museum of Contemporary Art has been kind enough to work on this with me and I’m so excited to present this musical opportunity! Tickets and event details can be found at the link provided. The code ILOVEORIGINALMUSIC5 can be used for a limited time to save on tickets. (The cost of tickets goes to cover the cost of the museum and the artists) Here are the links:
FOR TICKETS AND EVENT DETAILS: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/cori-the-music-album-release-and-cori-ography-anniversary-party-tickets-38256939536?aff=eac2
IF YOU’D LIKE TO HEAR THE MUSIC: https://coriandthemusic.bandcamp.com/album/who-am-i —
GET YOUR TICKETS TO THE ALBUM RELEASE PARTY! 11/11 @ The Museum of Contemporary Art San Diego (downtown) The newest album ‘Who Am I?’ is available now! LISTEN NOW ON BANDCAMP Join the Cori & The Music Fan List! Corina “Cori” Presutti http://www.coricompany.com Dance Music Music Dance Join the Cori-ography Mailing List!
Instead of a new introduction to this topic, I refer you to my framing from our meeting of several years ago on “does religion have to be conservative?”
We have had several other excellent discussions of the nature of religion and there were some good links. Here’s a list of those meetings, plus a few more optional readings. For many more fine articles that provide insights into the inherently conservative or liberal nature of specific religions, I refer you to the entire Internet.
Have a great Christmas, everyone and perhaps I’ll see you on Monday.
SUGGESTED BACGROUND READINGS –
- 2012 CivCon: Must Religion Be Conservative? Recommended.
- 2011 CivCon: What Is Liberal Christianity?
- 8 principles of progressive Christianity.
- How about eschewing labels like these altogether?
- Can the Christian Left become a real political force in America? Or, this shorter similar article. Either recommended.
- Cool chart: The political affiliation of all major US religious denominations.
- Conservative POV:
Next Week: Are we paying too high a price to combat terrorism?
Prop. 53 is like so many California propositions. A pet project of a single wealthy person. It would require statewide voter approval of all bond issuances over $2 billion. What’s not to like about more voter control over govt spending and borrowing?
Thanks to Linda and Aaron (Bruce’s son Aaron), we have new topics. See sidebar or “Upcoming mtg Schedule” tab. The first few mtgs are:
Oct 3: What should U.S. school kids be taught about history [last of old schedule]
Oct 10, 2016: Is the death penalty in American on the way out?
Oct 17: November ballot propositions.
Oct 24: Fox News at 20: How has it changed America?
Oct 31: Our Franken-future? Will Transhumanism improve our species genetically?
Hard copies will be available next mtg.
Today’s “boat people” fleeing the Middle East for Europe are just the latest in a long line of water-borne refugees fleeing wars and chaos. Carl, who has some personal experience in this, wanted us to talk about what most people old enough to remember it think of as the Boat People: The 1.2 million Southeast Asians that fled the aftermath of the wars in Indochina in the 1970s-80s. Most of them that resettled in the United States were Vietnamese, many of Chinese or Hmong descent. But, there were also tens of thousands of Cambodians, Laotians, and others.
I won’t be at Monday’s meeting. Too bad because I remember these events pretty vividly. I remember we faced the same hard questions and anguished choices the Europeans are facing today over their refugee problem. What is our moral responsibility to these people? Which countries should let in how many? Who should screen them and using what criteria? How can we help the host countries near the war zone that are overwhelmed with asylum seekers? Should some refugees be sent back to their home countries against their will (some Vietnamese boat people were)?
And, I recall the fierce political opposition the Boat People inspired, not just here but in other countries – including, BTW, Germany and Great Britain. In 1975 when Saigon fell, everybody was generous. As migrants kept on coming in large numbers year after year, not so much. Yes, a lot of that opposition was racist. But 1975-85 were tough economic times, too. A lot of Americans did not want to compete for jobs and government resources with an unexpected new wave of immigrants from countries that we had already sacrificed 57,000+ of our young men to defend.
As Carl will explain in my absence, many of the Boat People of the 1970s-80s had a kind of happy ending. The international community eventually resettled over 2 million of them, mostly in developed countries, with the United States taking the most. They joined a long historical list of boat people (see links), from Cubans (1980s) to Haitians (1980s) to European Jews (1940s).
You would think we’d have this down by now.
Anyway, on Monday evening Carl will give his take on whatever happened to the Indochinese Boat People and what lessons we perhaps should have learned.
SUGGESTED BACKGROUND READING –
- Who were the Boat People of the 1970s?
- A profile of today’s Vietnamese immigrants in the USA.
- Other 20th century boat peoples:
- Right now boat people in Southeast Asia! A Burmese minority is fleeing genocide. Recommended.
- Parallels between ‘70s Boat People and today’s refugee crisis:
Next Week: What does today’s science fiction say about our culture?
Borg on the fourth of July!
This weekend we are picking topics for June – Sept of 2016. So, if anybody has any ideas, put them in comments to this post or to the “Suggest a Topic” page. Suggesting one does not put you on the hook to do any prep for the mtg on it.
- Politics, public affairs, international relations, religion, philosophy, history, culture, others.
After 10 years, I tend to run low on original ideas. Help.