Now that Trumpcare is dead, he and the congressional GOP say they will move on to tax reform. Tax reform could take many forms and end up quite different from the plans proposed by Trump and other Republican leadership, if it happens at all. (And, again, who pays how much or saves how much is not the only thing that matters about taxes.)
Still, the Tax Policy Center (a think thank) estimated how the total tax burden would change under the Trump and House GOP tax reform plans, based on what was known n February 2017. I can’t get the charts to paste into this post. So, please see this NPR summary of the main findings here.
As you would expect, even though almost all American households would see some reduction in taxes under either proposal, the rich get much, much more tax relief. According to the TPC analysis, the bottom 40% of households would get about a 1%-2% increase in after-tax income, while the top 1% of households would get a 13%-17% boost.
[Sunday key update: Trump’s tax plan contains many, many hidden windfalls for the wealthiest earners and could raise taxes on millions of families, including via the corporate tax. I’m sorry to pour it on, but truth is truth.]
And, this analysis does not even include the effects of the GOP’s proposed cut in the corporate tax rate or a “border adjustment tax.” Off the top of my head, I would guess that since a BAT would be a lot like a sales tax on imported goods, it probably would hit working people the hardest, at least in the short run before trade patterns and exchange rates adjust. To Trump, I imagine a BAT’s main appeal is that it privileges exports over imports. But, to the House GOP members tentatively supporting it, a BAT’s main appeal is that it would raise enough revenue help make room for the other tax cuts. Corporate taxes tend to be passed through to consumers, so I’m not sure reducing them would change the overall tax burden much. We’ll find out.
I’ll do one more quick post tomorrow with pie charts on what the federal government spends our tax money on.