When Will We Know Who’s President?

See next post down for Monday’s Mtg post.

FYI election:  I clipped this from this blog, but the info is public.  Basically, by 4:30pm PST, polls in both Virginia and Ohio will be closed.  If both are called for Obama, Romney basically cannot win.  By 5pm our time, Florida is closed.  The states shown in blue are expected Obama states; the greys are expected Romney, and the bolded states are toss-ups/close.  The (#) is the number of electoral votes in the state.  All commentary is the blogger’s.

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At 7 pm EST, polls will close in these states:

  • Georgia  16
  • Indiana  11
  • Kentucky 8
  • South Carolina  9
  • Vermont  3
  • Virginia  13

If Virginia is called for President Obama, Romney’s shot at 270 electoral college votes will already be remote.

7:30 pm EST:

  • North Carolina  15
  • Ohio  18
  • West Virginia  5

Some are still calling North Carolina a “battleground” state, but the chances the President will win there are remote, and I’m assuming Romney will win North Carolina. The President is favored to win Ohio, but if he loses, and Mittens has Virginia at this point, we may be in for a grim night.

8 pm EST:

  • Alabama  9
  • Connecticut  7
  • Delaware  3
  • Florida  29
  • Illinois  20
  • Maine  4
  • Maryland  10
  • Massachusetts  11
  • Mississippi  6
  • Missouri  10
  • New Hampshire  4
  • New Jersey  14
  • Oklahoma  7
  • Pennsylvania  20
  • Rhode Island  4
  • Tennessee  11
  • Washington, DC  3

Mittens is still trying to win Pennsylvania, but Nate Silver says there’s a 97.3 percent chance of an Obama win. A Romney win there would be a huge upset.

New Hampshire is on the edge of being safe for Obama, but not quite.

I keep wanting to call Florida the “silver tuna.” Mitt pretty much has to win Florida if he’s going to get to 270.

So by 8 pm, we’ll be chewing our nails and waiting for the networks to call Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. If Romney wins all three of those, he has a real shot at winning the election. If he loses any of them, he probably won’t. If he loses Florida, especially, it’s probably out of reach for him. He’d have to pull off a major upset in one or two “big states,” like Pennsylvania, to make up for it.

If by chance Obama wins all three of those, we can go to bed on time.

8:30 pm EST

  • Arkansas 6

9:00 pm EST

  • Arizona  11
  • Colorado  9
  • Kansas  6
  • Louisiana  8
  • Michigan 16
  • Minnesota  10
  • Nebraska  5
  • New Mexico  5
  • New York  29
  • South Dakota  3
  • Texas  38
  • Wisconsin  10
  • Wyoming  3

Some pundits are still talking about Wisconsin and Michigan as if they were still up for grabs, but Nate Silver has chances of an Obama win above 90 percent for both states.

By 9:30 or so we may know whether Colorado will matter, either way. If Mitt has Florida and most of the other battleground states, Colorado may help him. If not, it won’t matter. Of course, we may not know anything yet.

10 pm EST:

  • Iowa  6
  • Montana  3
  • Nevada  6
  • Utah  6

Iowa and Nevada are both “likely” states for Obama.

11 pm EST:

  • California  55
  • Hawaii  4
  • Idaho  4
  • North Dakota  3
  • Oregon  7
  • Washington  12

If everything is going as expected, the West Coast will nail it down before midnight, I hope.

1 am EST:

  • Alaska  3

Now, what are the chances a “problem” state like Ohio or Florida will hold everything up by demanding a recount? The good news is that President Obama ought to be able to get to 270 votes without Florida and Ohio, and even without Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, which are the most likely states to hang everything up, IMO. To do that he would need all of the “blue” states above plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire, but he’s probably going to get them. If President Obama clearly wins either Ohio or Virginia, then barring some upset of a major blue state, Florida won’t matter.

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One response

  1. James H. Zimmerman | Reply

    The results of the election are now in–except for Florida.
    Basically, it leaves us where we were before. Doesn’t it?

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